Index 16% · Group

AI industry leaders

23%

Median of 4 counted estimates. One of 4 groups in the index, each with equal weight.

Who qualifies: CEO, president, co-founder or chief scientist of a company whose main product is AI models, now or in the past.

How the median is worked out

Counted estimates, lowest to highest. A range counts at its midpoint; estimates older than five years aren’t counted. With an even number, the median is halfway between the middle two.

  1. 20% Elon Musk
  2. 20% Emad Mostaque
  3. 25% Dario Amodei
  4. 27.5% Emmett Shear

Median: 22.5%

Stated estimates

Watchlist

People in this group who haven’t stated a number we can source. They join the list when they do.

  • Andrew Ng

    Has said he doesn't see a meaningful risk of extinction, but hasn't given a number.

    Source

  • Benjamin Mann

    Listed elsewhere at 0–10%, from a podcast interview. We haven't yet confirmed his own words.

    Source

  • Demis Hassabis

    Has said the risk is real and non-zero but hasn't given a number.

    Source

  • Reid Hoffman

    Often listed at 20%, but in the source he rated the threat 'two' on a scale of 1 to 10, which isn't a probability.

    Source

  • Sam Altman

    Has spoken about AI extinction risk but hasn't given a number.

    Source