16% chance AI destroys humanity

About 1 in 6

p(doom), or “pdoom”, is a person’s estimate of the probability that AI leads to human extinction or a permanent loss of human control. We track what public figures have said, with sources, and how it changes. What is p(doom)?

Updated November 2, 2026 · How it has moved · How the index works

Stated estimates

AI industry leaders group median 23%

Government & policy not in the index yet (fewer than 3)

AI safety researchers group median 75%

AI & computer science researchers group median 9%

Public voices group median 8%

What the forecasters say

Live odds from forecasting platforms and prediction markets, refreshed hourly. Shown for comparison; not part of the index.

The weekly brief

Where the number moved, who changed their mind, and the week’s essential reading. Once a week, no hype.