Index 16% · Group

Public voices

8%

Median of 8 counted estimates. One of 4 groups in the index, each with equal weight.

Who qualifies: Writers, podcasters, investors and technologists outside the other groups, with an English Wikipedia article or an audience of more than 100,000.

How the median is worked out

Counted estimates, lowest to highest. A range counts at its midpoint; estimates older than five years aren’t counted. With an even number, the median is halfway between the middle two.

  1. 0% Peter Diamandis
  2. 0.1% Salim Ismail
  3. 2% Dave Blundin
  4. 5% Destiny (Steven Bonnell II)
  5. 10% Lex Fridman
  6. 12% Vitalik Buterin
  7. 33% Scott Alexander
  8. 60% Zvi Mowshowitz

Median: 7.5%

Stated estimates

Watchlist

People in this group who haven’t stated a number we can source. They join the list when they do.

  • Alexander Wissner-Gross

    Calls p(doom) ill-defined and negligible. His 'P-Doom less than zero' is a slogan rather than a probability.

    Source

  • Marc Andreessen

    Dismisses AI extinction risk. The 0% sometimes attributed to him is a journalist's summary, not his own number.

    Source

  • Nate Silver

    Has written that his p(doom) is in line with an expert consensus of 5 to 10 percent. We are checking whether that counts as his own estimate.

    Source