Explainer
What is p(doom)?
p(doom), often written pdoom, means “the probability of doom”: someone’s estimate of the chance that artificial intelligence leads to human extinction or a permanent, catastrophic loss of human control. Right now, the people closest to AI put it at a median of 16%, about 1 in 6.
Where the term comes from
In probability notation, p(x) means “the probability of x”. AI-safety researchers and online forums started asking each other for their “p(doom)” as a quick way to compare how worried they were. The term went mainstream in 2023, when interviewers began putting the question to the people building AI, and many of them answered with a number.
How to read a p(doom)
- It’s a personal estimate, not a measurement. Nobody can calculate the real probability. A p(doom) tells you how worried someone is, in a form you can compare.
- Check what it’s a probability of. Some people mean extinction, some mean “things go really badly”, and some add a timeframe like “by 2100”. We note the scope next to each estimate.
- Ranges are common. “10–20%” means the person doesn’t want to be more precise than that. We count a range at its midpoint.
- Numbers change. People revise their estimates as AI develops. We keep every number on record with its date.
Will AI kill us all?
Nobody knows, and the experts disagree sharply. That disagreement is the most useful thing to understand.
- AI industry leaders: 23%
- AI safety researchers: 75%
- AI & computer science researchers: 9%
- Public voices: 8%
Taking the median of each group and then the median across groups gives today’s index of 16%, about 1 in 6. 19 of the 24 people we track put it below 50%, and 18 put it at 10% or higher.
Common questions
- What does p(doom) mean?
- p(doom), often written pdoom, means "the probability of doom": a person's estimate of the chance that artificial intelligence leads to human extinction or a permanent, catastrophic loss of human control. "p(x)" is the usual shorthand for "the probability of x".
- What is the current p(doom)?
- 16% (about 1 in 6), as of the latest update. That's the median of group medians across the public estimates we track from AI industry leaders, researchers, safety researchers and public voices.
- Will AI kill us all?
- Nobody knows, and the people closest to AI disagree sharply. Their median estimate is 16%, about 1 in 6. AI safety researchers put it at 75%, while public voices put it at 8%. 19 of the 24 people we track put it below 50%, and 18 put it at 10% or higher.
- Who has the highest and lowest p(doom)?
- Among the people we track, Roman Yampolskiy gives the highest (99.999999%) and Peter Diamandis the lowest (≈0%). Every estimate links to where it was said.
- How is the p(doom) index calculated?
- We list only people who have stated an explicit number, with a source. Each person belongs to one of five groups; we take the median within each group and then the median of those group medians, so no single crowd can tip the number. Estimates older than five years are shown but not counted.