Index 16% · Group
AI & computer science researchers
9%
Median of 4 counted estimates. One of 4 groups in the index, each with equal weight.
Who qualifies: Faculty or senior researchers in AI, computer science or cognitive science with a Turing Award, a Nobel Prize, or more than 10,000 citations.
How the median is worked out
Counted estimates, lowest to highest. A range counts at its midpoint; estimates older than five years aren’t counted. With an even number, the median is halfway between the middle two.
- 2% Scott Aaronson
- 3% Gary Marcus
- 15% Geoffrey Hinton
- 20% Yoshua Bengio
Median: 9%
Stated estimates
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Yoshua Bengio (bio, opens in new tab)
Turing Award winner; founder and scientific adviser of Mila
20%
probability that it turns out catastrophic
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Geoffrey Hinton (bio, opens in new tab)
Nobel laureate (Physics 2024); Turing Award winner; University of Toronto
10–20%
chance AI leads to human extinction within the next three decades
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Gary Marcus (bio, opens in new tab)
Cognitive scientist and AI critic; professor emeritus at NYU
3%
2025 · source for Gary Marcus (Marcus on AI (Substack): "Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically")
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Scott Aaronson (bio, opens in new tab)
Theoretical computer scientist at the University of Texas at Austin
2%
2023 · source for Scott Aaronson (Shtetl-Optimized: "On being wrong about AI")
the classic paperclip-maximizer-style AGI-doom scenario only; he gives a higher, unstated number for any AI-involved existential catastrophe
Watchlist
People in this group who haven’t stated a number we can source. They join the list when they do.
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David Duvenaud
A podcast episode title gives 85%, but we haven't yet confirmed his own words.
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Stuart Russell
A leading voice on AI risk who hasn't given a number.
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Yann LeCun
Often listed at under 0.01%, but in the source he compares the risk to an asteroid strike rather than giving a number.